Do inconclusive forensic decisions disadvantage the innocent?

OBJECTIVE: Two experiments examined the potential for inconclusive forensic decisions to disadvantage the innocent. HYPOTHESES: Both experiments tested the hypothesis that inconclusive decisions produce more incriminating legal judgments than do clearly exculpatory forensic decisions. Experiment 2 also examined whether this hypothesized effect conformed to a confirmation bias, a communication error, or perceptual accuracy. METHOD: In Experiment 1 (N = 492), a forensic expert testified that physical evidence recovered from a crime scene either matched or did not match a suspect's evidence or produced an inconclusive result. In Experiment 2 (N = 1,002), a forensic expert testified that physical evidence recovered from a crime scene either matched or did not match a suspect's evidence, produced an inconclusive result, or was unsuitable for analysis. A fifth condition omitted the forensic evidence and expert testimony. RESULTS: The inconclusive decision produced less incriminating legal judgments than did the match forensic decision (|d|average = 0.96), more incriminating legal judgments than did the no-match forensic decision (|d|average = 0.62), and equivalent legal judgments to the unsuitable decision (|d|average = 0.12) and to legal judgments made in the absence of forensic evidence (|d|average = 0.07). These results suggest that participants interpreted the inconclusive decision to be forensically neutral, which is consistent with a communication error. CONCLUSION: The findings provide preliminary support for the idea that inconclusive decisions can put the innocent at risk of wrongful conviction by depriving them of a clearly exculpatory forensic decision. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Validity of forensic cartridge-case comparisons.

This article presents key findings from a research project that evaluated the validity and probative value of cartridge-case comparisons under field-based conditions. Decisions provided by 228 trained firearm examiners across the US showed that forensic cartridge-case comparison is characterized by low error rates. However, inconclusive decisions constituted over one-fifth of all decisions rendered, complicating evaluation of the technique's ability to yield unambiguously correct decisions. Specifically, restricting evaluation to only the conclusive decisions of identification and elimination yielded true-positive and true-negative rates exceeding 99%, but incorporating inconclusives caused these values to drop to 93.4% and 63.5%, respectively. The asymmetric effect on the two rates occurred because inconclusive decisions were rendered six times more frequently for different-source than same-source comparisons. Considering probative value, which is a decision's usefulness for determining a comparison's ground-truth state, conclusive decisions predicted their corresponding ground-truth states with near perfection. Likelihood ratios (LRs) further showed that conclusive decisions greatly increase the odds of a comparison's ground-truth state matching the ground-truth state asserted by the decision. Inconclusive decisions also possessed probative value, predicting different-source status and having a LR indicating that they increase the odds of different-source status. The study also manipulated comparison difficulty by using two firearm models that produce dissimilar cartridge-case markings. The model chosen for being more difficult received more inconclusive decisions for same-source comparisons, resulting in a lower true-positive rate compared to the less difficult model. Relatedly, inconclusive decisions for the less difficult model exhibited more probative value, being more strongly predictive of different-source status.

Mobilization and resistance in response to interrogation threat.

This research tested whether the perception of threat during a police interrogation mobilizes suspects to cope with interrogation demands and bolsters their resistance to self-incrimination pressures. Experimental procedures led university undergraduates (N = 296) to engage in misconduct or not, thereby making them guilty or innocent. An experimenter then accused all participants of misconduct in either a threatening or nonthreatening way. High threat produced a broad pattern of mobilization entailing physiologic, cognitive, and behavioral components. Specifically, in comparison to the low threat accusation, the high threat accusation produced greater cardiovascular reactions, increased attentional bias and memory for accusation-relevant information, and strengthened resistance to self-incrimination. Furthermore, with the exception of physiologic reactions, these effects were similar for both guilty and innocent participants. Consistent with the phenomenology of innocence wherein the innocent perceive less threat from interrogation than do the guilty, the innocent evidenced smaller cardiovascular responses to high threat than did the guilty. Results suggest that the more threat that suspects experience, the more they will be mobilized to cope with interrogation demands and resist interpersonal pressure to self-incriminate, at least initially. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Reducing threat responses to help-seeking information: Influences of self-affirmations and reassuring information.

This research was an examination of the effects of two types of self-affirmation interventions in reducing threat responses associated with receiving help-seeking information. Help-seeking information can be threatening to one's positive self-perceptions and people may avoid seeking such information to protect themselves. There is evidence that reflecting on personal values (values affirmation) may bolster self-integrity and mitigate this avoidance, and it is possible that reflecting on safe, close social relationships (social affirmation) could exhibit similar effects. To experimentally examine this theoretical idea, we applied a 2 × 2 × 2 factorial design in the present study on 384 participants and experimentally manipulated their values affirmations (values affirmation vs. no values affirmation) and social affirmations (social affirmation vs. no social affirmation). In addition, because there is no consensus as to the most effective presentation of help-seeking information, the type of help-seeking information presented to potential help-seekers was also manipulated (reassuring help-seeking information vs. nonreassuring help-seeking information). Results indicated that values affirmation and reassuring information were linked to lower threat responses, but social affirmation was not. Values affirmation and reassuring information might be effective strategies for reducing threat responses associated with the presentation of psychological help-seeking information. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

The accumulation of stereotype-based self-fulfilling prophecies.

A recurring theme in the psychological literature is that the self-fulfilling effect of stereotypes can accumulate across perceivers. This article provides the first empirical support for this long-standing hypothesis. In three experiments (Ns = 123-241), targets more strongly confirmed a stereotype as the number of perceivers who held stereotypic expectations about them increased. A fourth experiment (N = 121) showed that new perceivers judged targets according to the stereotypic behaviors they had previously been channeled to adopt, an effect that even occurred among perceivers who were privy to the fact that targets' behavior had been shaped by the actions of others. The authors discuss ways in which these effects may contribute to group inequalities. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

A biphasic process of resistance among suspects: The mobilization and decline of self-regulatory resources.

We conducted two experiments to test whether police interrogation elicits a biphasic process of resistance from suspects. According to this process, the initial threat of police interrogation mobilizes suspects to resist interrogative influence in a manner akin to a fight or flight response, but suspects' protracted self-regulation of their behavior during subsequent questioning increases their susceptibility to interrogative influence in the long-run. In Experiment 1 (N = 316), participants who were threatened by an accusation of misconduct exhibited responses indicative of mobilization and more strongly resisted social pressure to acquiesce to suggestive questioning than did participants who were not accused. In Experiment 2 (N = 160), self-regulatory decline that was induced during questioning about misconduct undermined participants' ability to resist suggestive questioning. These findings support a theoretical account of the dynamic and temporal nature of suspects' responses to police interrogation over the course of questioning. (PsycINFO Database Record

The interrogation decision-making model: A general theoretical framework for confessions.

This article presents a new model of confessions referred to as the interrogation decision-making model. This model provides a theoretical umbrella with which to understand and analyze suspects' decisions to deny or confess guilt in the context of a custodial interrogation. The model draws upon expected utility theory to propose a mathematical account of the psychological mechanisms that not only underlie suspects' decisions to deny or confess guilt at any specific point during an interrogation, but also how confession decisions can change over time. Findings from the extant literature pertaining to confessions are considered to demonstrate how the model offers a comprehensive and integrative framework for organizing a range of effects within a limited set of model parameters. (PsycINFO Database Record

The perfect match: Do criminal stereotypes bias forensic evidence analysis?

This research provided the first empirical test of the hypothesis that stereotypes bias evaluations of forensic evidence. A pilot study (N = 107) assessed the content and consensus of 20 criminal stereotypes by identifying perpetrator characteristics (e.g., sex, race, age, religion) that are stereotypically associated with specific crimes. In the main experiment (N = 225), participants read a mock police incident report involving either a stereotyped crime (child molestation) or a nonstereotyped crime (identity theft) and judged whether a suspect's fingerprint matched a fingerprint recovered at the crime scene. Accompanying the suspect's fingerprint was personal information about the suspect of the type that is routinely available to fingerprint analysts (e.g., race, sex) and which could activate a stereotype. Participants most often perceived the fingerprints to match when the suspect fit the criminal stereotype, even though the prints did not actually match. Moreover, participants appeared to be unaware of the extent to which a criminal stereotype had biased their evaluations. These findings demonstrate that criminal stereotypes are a potential source of bias in forensic evidence analysis and suggest that suspects who fit criminal stereotypes may be disadvantaged over the course of the criminal justice process. (PsycINFO Database Record

Relationship Closeness and Self-reported Willingness to Falsely Take the Blame.

One reason people falsely confess is to protect the true perpetrator. The current study examined whether relationship closeness influences people's self-reported willingness to falsely take the blame. Utilizing theoretical work from the prosocial area, three potential mediators were investigated. Participants (N = 131) were randomly assigned to think of either a close or a casual friend and then read one of two scenarios that described a minor offense committed by the friend. Participants' willingness to take the blame was assessed, as well as their perceptions of reciprocity, feelings of empathy, and distress concerns related to their relationship with the offending friend. Results showed that, in both scenarios, participants more often took the blame in the close friend condition than in the casual friend condition. Reciprocity and empathy each uniquely and independently mediated relationship closeness, whereas distress concerns did not. Differences in the two scenarios, which describe different offenses, are discussed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Short-sighted confession decisions: the role of uncertain and delayed consequences.

Suspects have a propensity to focus on short-term contingencies, giving disproportionate weight to the proximal consequences that are delivered by police during an interrogation, and too little consideration to the distal (and often more severe) consequences that may be levied by the judicial system if they are convicted. In this research, the authors examined whether the perceived uncertainty and temporal distance of distal consequences contribute to this propensity. Using the repetitive question paradigm (Madon et al., 2012), participants (N = 209) were interviewed about 20 prior criminal and unethical behaviors and were required to admit or deny each one. Participants' denials and admissions were paired with both a proximal consequence and a distal consequence, respectively. Results indicated that the distal consequence had less impact on participants' admission decisions when it was uncertain and temporally remote. These results provide evidence that the perceived uncertainty and temporal distance of future punishment are key factors that lead suspects to confess to crimes in exchange for short-term gains.

Popularity as a predictor of early alcohol use and moderator of other risk processes.

OBJECTIVE: This study tested the relationship between popularity and early adolescent alcohol use and examined whether popularity moderated the influence of several risk processes. METHOD: Longitudinal data provided by 1,196 youth (590 girls) were analyzed to assess main and interactive effects of popularity, friends' alcohol use attitudes, own alcohol use attitude, risk taking, and aggressive-disruptive behavior on changes in alcohol use during seventh grade. RESULTS: When we controlled for demographic variables and baseline alcohol use, popularity and the other predictors of interest exhibited linear main effects on alcohol use, with popularity and the attitude variables also demonstrating curvilinear relationships. Further analysis indicated that popularity moderated the effect of aggressive-disruptive behavior, the latter being associated with greater alcohol use among more popular adolescents. Additional moderation results revealed that friends' favorable attitudes toward alcohol use also potentiated aggressive-disruptive behavior's relationship with alcohol use and that male youth were more likely than female youth to use alcohol, but only among low risk takers. CONCLUSIONS: Popular youth may attempt to maintain status through early alcohol use, and their social competencies may facilitate risk processes associated with aggressive-disruptive behavior. Findings suggest the utility of providing universal prevention at developmentally crucial times to address substance use overall, and particularly to decrease early use among popular youth, which may serve to slow the growth of substance use in the larger cohort. Although aggressive-disruptive youth who are popular seem to be at particular risk, they may resist traditional interventions, indicating the potential value of less obvious intervention strategies.

Standardizing economic analysis in prevention will require substantial effort.

It is exceedingly difficult to compare results of economic analyses across studies due to variations in assumptions, methodology, and outcome measures, a fact which surely decreases the impact and usefulness of prevention-related economic research. Therefore, Crowley et al. (Prevention Science, 2013) are precisely correct in their call for increased standardization and have usefully highlighted the issues that must be addressed. However, having made the need clear, the questions become what form the solution should take, and how should it be implemented. The present discussion outlines the rudiments of a comprehensive framework for promoting standardized methodology in the estimation of economic outcomes, as encouraged by Crowley et al. In short, a single, standard, reference case approach should be clearly articulated, and all economic research should be encouraged to apply that standard approach, with results from compliant analyses being reported in a central archive. Properly done, the process would increase the ability of those without specialized training to contribute to the body of economic research pertaining to prevention, and the most difficult tasks of predicting and monetizing distal outcomes would be readily completed through predetermined models. These recommendations might be viewed as somewhat forcible, insomuch as they advocate for prescribing the details of a standard methodology and establishing a means of verifying compliance. However, it is unclear that the best practices proposed by Crowley et al. will be widely adopted in the absence of a strong and determined approach.

The Role Of The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy In Young Adolescents' Responsiveness To A Substance Use Prevention Program.

This research examined whether naturally-occurring self-fulfilling prophecies influenced adolescents' responsiveness to a substance use prevention program. The authors addressed this issue with a unique methodological approach that was designed to enhance the internal validity of research on naturally-occurring self-fulfilling prophecies by experimentally controlling for prediction without influence. Participants were 321 families who were assigned to an adolescent substance use prevention program that either did or did not systematically involve parents. Results showed that parents' perceptions about the value of involving parents in adolescent substance use prevention predicted adolescents' alcohol use more strongly among families assigned to the prevention program that systematically involved parents than to the one that did not. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

Reducing the stigma associated with seeking psychotherapy through self-affirmation.

Psychotherapy may be underutilized because people experience self-stigma-the internalization of public stigma associated with seeking psychotherapy. The purpose of this study was to experimentally test whether the self-stigma associated with seeking psychotherapy could be reduced by a self-affirmation intervention wherein participants reflected on an important personal characteristic. Compared with a control group, we hypothesized that a self-affirmation writing task would attenuate self-stigma, and thereby evidence indirect effects on intentions and willingness to seek psychotherapy. Participants were 84 undergraduates experiencing psychological distress. After completing pretest measures of self-stigma, intentions, and willingness to seek psychotherapy, participants were randomly assigned to either a self-affirmation or a control writing task, and subsequently completed posttest measures of self-stigma, intentions, and willingness to seek psychotherapy. Consistent with hypotheses, participants who engaged in self-affirmation reported lower self-stigma at posttest. Moreover, the self-affirmation writing task resulted in a positive indirect effect on willingness to seek psychotherapy, though results failed to support an indirect effect on intentions to seek psychotherapy. Findings suggest that self-affirmation theory may provide a useful framework for designing interventions that seek to address the underutilization of psychological services through reductions in self-stigma.

Innocence and resisting confession during interrogation: effects on physiologic activity.

Innocent suspects may not adequately protect themselves during interrogation because they fail to fully appreciate the danger of the situation. This experiment tested whether innocent suspects experience less stress during interrogation than guilty suspects, and whether refusing to confess expends physiologic resources. After experimentally manipulating innocence and guilt, 132 participants were accused and interrogated for misconduct, and then pressured to confess. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP), heart rate (HR), respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), and preejection period (PEP) responses quantified stress reactions. As hypothesized, the innocent evidenced smaller stress responses to interrogation for SBP, DBP, HR, and RSA than did the guilty. Furthermore, innocents who refused to confess exhibited greater sympathetic nervous system activation, as evidenced by shorter PEPs, than did innocent or guilty confessors. These findings suggest that innocent suspects underestimate the threat of interrogation and that resisting pressures to confess can diminish suspects' physiologic resources and lead to false confessions.

How factors present during the immediate interrogation situation produce short-sighted confession decisions.

Suspects have a preexisting vulnerability to make short-sighted confession decisions, giving disproportionate weight to proximal, rather than distal, consequences. The findings of the current research provided evidence that this preexisting vulnerability is exacerbated by factors that are associated with the immediate interrogation situation. In Experiment 1 (N = 118), a lengthy interview exacerbated participants' tendency to temporally discount a distal consequence when deciding whether or not to admit to criminal and unethical behaviors. This effect was especially pronounced among less serious behaviors. In Experiment 2 (N = 177), participants' tendency to temporally discount a distal consequence when making admission decisions was exacerbated by the expectation of a lengthy interview; an effect that became stronger the longer the interview continued. These findings suggest that conditions of the immediate interrogation situation may capitalize on an already-present vulnerability among suspects to make short-sighted confession decisions, thereby increasing the chances that even innocent suspects might confess.

Substance misuse prevention and economic analysis: challenges and opportunities regarding international utility.

Economic analyses of substance misuse prevention assess the intervention cost necessary to achieve a particular outcome, and thereby provide an additional dimension for evaluating prevention programming. This article reviews several types of economic analysis, considers how they can be applied to substance misuse prevention, and discusses challenges to enhancing their international relevance, particularly their usefulness for informing policy decisions. Important first steps taken to address these challenges are presented, including the disease burden concept and the development of generalized cost-effectiveness, advances that facilitate international policy discussions by providing a common framework for evaluating health care needs and program effects.

Temporal discounting: the differential effect of proximal and distal consequences on confession decisions.

Drawing on the psychological principle that proximal consequences influence behavior more strongly than distal consequences, the authors tested the hypothesis that criminal suspects exhibit a short-sightedness during police interrogation that increases their risk for confession. Consistent with this hypothesis, Experiment 1 showed that participants (N = 81) altered how frequently they admitted to criminal and unethical behaviors during an interview to avoid a proximal consequence even though doing so increased their risk of incurring a distal consequence. Experiment 2 (N = 143) yielded the same pattern, but with a procedure that reversed the order of the proximal and distal consequences, thereby ruling out the possibility that it was the unique characteristics of the consequences rather than their proximity that influenced the admission rate. The authors discuss the supported psychological process as a potential explanation for several well-established findings reported in the literature on confessions.

Benefits of universal intervention effects on a youth protective shield 10 years after baseline.

PURPOSE: An earlier randomized controlled study found that a universal, family-focused preventive intervention produced protective shield effects-reduced adolescent exposures to illicit substance opportunities-among adolescents in grade 12. This study examined a follow-up assessment of the sample during young adulthood. METHODS: A randomized controlled trial evaluated the Iowa Strengthening Families Program that was implemented in 22 rural schools (N = 446 families) when the participants were in grade six. Measures included adolescent exposure to illicit substance use and young adult lifetime substance use (age 21; N = 331). Growth curve modeling examined indirect intervention effects through growth factors of adolescent exposure. RESULTS: Findings from this study confirm protective shield effects that mediate long-term reduction of illicit substance use (ß = -.14, p = .02, Relative Reduction Rate = 28.2%). CONCLUSIONS: The benefits of decreasing exposure to substance use during adolescence through universal interventions were supported, with positive effects extending into young adulthood.

Economic analysis of methamphetamine prevention effects and employer costs.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this research was to evaluate economically three interventions designed to prevent substance use in general populations of adolescents, specifically focusing on the prevention of methamphetamine use and its subsequent benefits to employers. METHOD: In a randomized, controlled trial, three preventive interventions were delivered to 6th- or 7th-grade youth in 58 Iowa school districts, with 905 of these youth (449 girls) providing follow-up assessments as 12th graders. Intervention conditions included the family-focused Iowa Strengthening Families Program (ISFP), the school-based Life Skills Training (LST) program, and a combined condition of both the Strengthening Families Program: For Parents and Youth 10-14 (SFP10- 14; an ISFP revision) plus LST (LST + SFP10-14). Analyses based on intervention costs, 12th-grade methamphetamine use rates, and methamphetamine- related employer costs yielded estimates of intervention cost, cost-effectiveness, benefit-cost ratio, and net benefit. RESULTS: The ISFP lowered methamphetamine use by 3.9%, cost $25,385 to prevent each case, and had a benefit-cost ratio of 3.84, yielding a net benefit of $2,813 per youth. The LST program reduced methamphetamine use by 2.5%, required $5,122 per prevented case, and had a benefit-cost ratio of 19.04, netting $2,273 per youth. The combined LST + SFP10-14 prevention condition lowered methamphetamine use rates by 1.8%, cost $62,697 to prevent each case, had a benefit-cost ratio of 1.56, and netted $620 per youth. Findings were robust after varying a number of key parameters across a range of plausible values. CONCLUSIONS: Substance use prevention programming is economically feasible, particularly for effective interventions that have lower per person treatment delivery costs.